/LMAR=0/XLINE=3/FONT#0=BAXL30/FONT#1=BAXM30/FONT#2=BASB30/FONT#3=SUB/FONT#4=SUP/FONT#5=BASL35/FONT#6=NGR25/FONT#7=MATH30/FONT#8=FIX25/FONT#9=GRKB30
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ u1


␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ ¬5EXTREME CONSERVATION

␈↓ α∧␈↓(paper␈αgiven␈αat␈αthe␈αColloquium␈αon␈αContingency␈αPlanning␈αfor␈αan␈αEnergy␈αEmergency,␈αJune␈α16-18,

␈↓ α∧␈↓1980␈α∞held␈α∞at␈α
Stanford␈α∞University␈α∞and␈α
sponsored␈α∞by␈α∞Scientists␈α
and␈α∞Engineers␈α∞for␈α∞Secure␈α
Energy

␈↓ α∧␈↓(SE␈↓β2␈↓) and the Hoover Institution)

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThis␈α⊃paper␈α⊂discusses␈α⊃the␈α⊂conservation␈α⊃measures␈α⊂that␈α⊃would␈α⊂be␈α⊃necessary␈α⊂in␈α⊃case␈α⊃of␈α⊂the

␈↓ α∧␈↓possible␈α
prolonged␈α
cutoff␈α
of␈α
Middle␈α
East␈α
oil␈α
that␈α
is␈α
the␈α
subject␈α
of␈α
this␈α
Colloquium.␈α
 One␈α
of␈αmy

␈↓ α∧␈↓qualifications␈α∂for␈α∂giving␈α∞the␈α∂paper␈α∂is␈α∞that␈α∂I␈α∂am␈α∞not␈α∂an␈α∂enthusiast␈α∞for␈α∂conservation.␈α∂ Quite␈α∞the

␈↓ α∧␈↓contrary;␈α
I␈α
believe␈α
we␈α
can␈α
and␈α
should␈α
produce␈αall␈α
the␈α
energy␈α
anyone␈α
will␈α
want␈α
to␈α
buy.␈α The␈α
quasi-

␈↓ α∧␈↓religious␈αemphasis␈αthat␈αhas␈αbeen␈α
given␈αto␈αconservation␈αsince␈α1973␈α
has␈αhad␈αa␈αlarge␈αcost␈αin␈α
reduced

␈↓ α∧␈↓attention␈α⊃to␈α⊃innovation␈α⊂and␈α⊃productivity,␈α⊃and␈α⊂it␈α⊃has␈α⊃helped␈α⊂prevent␈α⊃the␈α⊃production␈α⊂measures

␈↓ α∧␈↓required to solve our energy problem.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTHowever,␈α⊃a␈α⊃prolonged␈α⊃halt␈α⊃in␈α⊃Middle␈α⊃East␈α⊃oil␈α⊃exports␈α⊃would␈α⊃require␈α⊃some␈α∩severe␈α⊃and

␈↓ α∧␈↓unpleasant␈α∞measures␈α∞of␈α∞conservation.␈α∞ They␈α∞should␈α∞be␈α∞regarded␈α∞as␈α∞temporary,␈α∞and␈α∞their␈α∞design

␈↓ α∧␈↓should support a production mobilization aimed at making them temporary.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α∂necessary␈α∂severity␈α∂depends␈α∂on␈α∂the␈α∂magnitude␈α∂and␈α∂duration␈α∂of␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂cutoff␈α∂and␈α∞on

␈↓ α∧␈↓demands␈α⊃for␈α⊃energy␈α⊃apart␈α⊃from␈α⊃normal␈α∩American␈α⊃civilian␈α⊃demands.␈α⊃ We␈α⊃shall␈α⊃not␈α∩take␈α⊃into

␈↓ α∧␈↓account␈α
possible␈α
damage␈α
to␈α∞our␈α
internal␈α
energy␈α
production␈α
by␈α∞hostile␈α
action.␈α
 On␈α
this␈α∞basis,␈α
the

␈↓ α∧␈↓maximum␈αshortage␈α
we␈αneed␈α
to␈αconsider␈αamounts␈α
to␈αa␈α
complete␈αcutoff␈αof␈α
imports␈αtogether␈α
with␈αa

␈↓ α∧␈↓need␈αto␈αexport␈αhalf␈αour␈αinternal␈αproduction␈αof␈αoil␈αin␈αorder␈αto␈αkeep␈αour␈αallies␈αalive.␈α The␈αshortage

␈↓ α∧␈↓would␈αbe␈αassumed␈αto␈αlast␈αuntil␈αwe␈αand␈αour␈αallies␈αcan␈αproduce␈αour␈αway␈αout␈αof␈αthe␈αcrisis.␈α We␈αshall

␈↓ α∧␈↓also consider a cutoff of imports without a need to export and a cutoff of half our imports.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTA␈α⊃full␈α⊃plan␈α⊃for␈α⊃dealing␈α∩with␈α⊃such␈α⊃shortages␈α⊃would␈α⊃establish␈α⊃a␈α∩correspondence␈α⊃between

␈↓ α∧␈↓amounts␈α⊃of␈α⊃shortage␈α⊃and␈α⊃specific␈α⊃measures␈α⊃of␈α⊃conservation.␈α⊃ Determining␈α∩this␈α⊃correspondence

␈↓ α∧␈↓would␈α∂be␈α∂a␈α∂substantial␈α∂many␈α∂person␈α∂research␈α∞project,␈α∂so␈α∂I␈α∂will␈α∂have␈α∂to␈α∂treat␈α∂successively␈α∞more
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ u2


␈↓ α∧␈↓severe␈α
conservation␈α
measures␈α∞qualitatively.␈α
 The␈α
general␈α
level␈α∞of␈α
hardship␈α
would␈α
be␈α∞worse␈α
than

␈↓ α∧␈↓that␈α∞suffered␈α∂by␈α∞American␈α∂civilians␈α∞during␈α∞World␈α∂War␈α∞II,␈α∂but␈α∞it␈α∞might␈α∂not␈α∞be␈α∂as␈α∞bad␈α∂as␈α∞that

␈↓ α∧␈↓suffered␈α∂by␈α∞British␈α∂civilians,␈α∂and␈α∞wouldn't␈α∂be␈α∞as␈α∂bad␈α∂as␈α∞that␈α∂suffered␈α∞by␈α∂civilians␈α∂in␈α∞occupied

␈↓ α∧␈↓Europe.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTMost␈α⊃participants␈α⊃in␈α⊃this␈α⊂conference␈α⊃will␈α⊃agree␈α⊃that␈α⊂our␈α⊃energy␈α⊃problems␈α⊃today␈α⊃have␈α⊂a

␈↓ α∧␈↓mainly␈α⊃political␈α⊃origin.␈α∩ If␈α⊃we␈α⊃had␈α⊃had␈α∩the␈α⊃political␈α⊃will,␈α⊃we␈α∩could␈α⊃have␈α⊃carried␈α∩out␈α⊃Project

␈↓ α∧␈↓Independence.␈α
 We␈α∞might␈α
still␈α
be␈α∞importing␈α
oil,␈α
but␈α∞it␈α
would␈α
be␈α∞because␈α
importing␈α∞was␈α
cheaper

␈↓ α∧␈↓than␈α
producing␈α
all␈α
our␈α
own␈α∞energy␈α
requirements,␈α
and␈α
the␈α
price␈α∞of␈α
oil␈α
would␈α
be␈α
affected␈α∞by␈α
our

␈↓ α∧␈↓ability␈α∂to␈α∞meet␈α∂our␈α∂needs␈α∞if␈α∂necessary.␈α∂ If␈α∞we␈α∂had␈α∂the␈α∞political␈α∂will␈α∂now,␈α∞we␈α∂could␈α∂still␈α∞achieve

␈↓ α∧␈↓substantial independence in a relatively short time.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTMost␈α
likely␈α
the␈α
American␈α
public␈α
would␈α
react␈α
to␈α
a␈α
sudden␈α
oil␈α
cutoff␈α
as␈α
it␈α
reacted␈α
to␈α
the␈α
attack

␈↓ α∧␈↓on␈αPearl␈αHarbor.␈α This␈αwould␈αallow␈αactions␈αto␈αbe␈αtaken␈αthat␈αthe␈αpresent␈αpolitical␈αsituation␈αdoesn't

␈↓ α∧␈↓even␈αpermit␈αincluding␈αin␈αcontingency␈αplans.␈α We␈αcannot␈αbe␈αentirely␈αsure␈αof␈αthis,␈αand␈αthe␈αreaction

␈↓ α∧␈↓to␈αa␈α
slow␈αcutoff␈α
might␈αresemble␈αthat␈α
of␈αFrance␈α
to␈αthe␈αbeginning␈α
of␈αWorld␈α
War␈αII.␈α Therefore,␈α
this

␈↓ α∧␈↓paper will treat political as well as technical aspects of managing a crisis.



␈↓ α∧␈↓THE TECHNOLOGICAL NATURE OF A CRISIS

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTShould␈αwe␈αlose␈α
our␈αimports␈αof␈αoil␈α
and␈αhave␈αto␈α
export␈αhalf␈αour␈αown,␈α
this␈αwould␈αreduce␈αus␈α
to

␈↓ α∧␈↓64.4␈αpercent␈αof␈αour␈αpresent␈αenergy␈αuse.␈α Our␈αper␈αcapita␈αenergy␈αuse␈αwould␈αthen␈αcorrespond␈αto␈αthat

␈↓ α∧␈↓of␈α
the␈α
year␈α1950.␈α
 Not␈α
having␈αto␈α
export␈α
would␈αbring␈α
us␈α
only␈αback␈α
to␈α
1965,␈αand␈α
if␈α
we␈α
need␈αonly

␈↓ α∧␈↓halve␈α∂our␈α∞imports,␈α∂we␈α∞are␈α∂at␈α∞1968.␈α∂ Of␈α∂course,␈α∞the␈α∂disruption␈α∞of␈α∂our␈α∞economy␈α∂would␈α∂be␈α∞much

␈↓ α∧␈↓worse␈α⊃than␈α⊃these␈α∩figures␈α⊃indicate,␈α⊃because␈α∩the␈α⊃different␈α⊃sources␈α∩of␈α⊃energy␈α⊃are␈α∩not␈α⊃completely

␈↓ α∧␈↓substitutable.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTIn␈α
all␈α
but␈α
oil␈αthe␈α
U.S.␈α
is␈α
either␈αself-sufficient␈α
or␈α
almost␈α
all␈αthe␈α
imports␈α
are␈α
from␈αCanada␈α
and
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ u3


␈↓ α∧␈↓Mexico.␈α∞ Oil␈α∂has␈α∞substitutes␈α∞except␈α∂for␈α∞transportation,␈α∞and␈α∂if␈α∞we␈α∞could␈α∂fully␈α∞replace␈α∞it␈α∂in␈α∞non-

␈↓ α∧␈↓transportation␈α
uses,␈α
we␈α
would␈α
be␈α
nearly␈αself-sufficient␈α
(not␈α
counting␈α
any␈α
possible␈α
need␈α
to␈αsupply

␈↓ α∧␈↓allies).

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTOil␈α⊃is␈α⊃used␈α⊃for␈α⊃four␈α⊃main␈α⊂purposes:␈α⊃transportation␈α⊃(52␈α⊃percent),␈α⊃industrial␈α⊃(20␈α⊂percent),

␈↓ α∧␈↓heating␈α
homes␈αand␈α
businesses␈α(19␈α
percent)␈α
and␈αgenerating␈α
electricity␈α(10␈α
percent).␈α While␈α
replacing

␈↓ α∧␈↓oil␈α
as␈α
transportation␈α
fuel␈α
is␈α
a␈α
long␈αterm␈α
proposition,␈α
it␈α
is␈α
economically␈α
replacable␈α
by␈αnuclear␈α
energy

␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈α
coal␈α
for␈αgenerating␈α
electricity␈α
as␈αfast␈α
as␈α
plants␈αcan␈α
be␈α
built␈αor␈α
converted,␈α
and␈α
somewhat␈αless

␈↓ α∧␈↓economically replacable by electricity for heating (with or without heat pumps).

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTCalifornia␈α
generates␈αabout␈α
60␈αpercent␈α
of␈αits␈α
electricity␈α
by␈αburning␈α
oil,␈αwhile␈α
Illinois␈αgets␈α
only

␈↓ α∧␈↓about␈α⊂6␈α⊂percent␈α∂from␈α⊂oil.␈α⊂ This␈α∂means␈α⊂that␈α⊂the␈α∂emergency␈α⊂programs␈α⊂in␈α∂different␈α⊂parts␈α⊂of␈α∂the

␈↓ α∧␈↓country␈αwill␈α
differ.␈α Presumably␈α
in␈αIllinois,␈α
it␈αwill␈αbe␈α
desirable␈αin␈α
an␈αemergency␈α
to␈αreplace␈αsome␈α
oil

␈↓ α∧␈↓heating␈α⊃by␈α∩electric␈α⊃heating␈α⊃and␈α∩economize␈α⊃on␈α∩some␈α⊃other␈α⊃applications␈α∩of␈α⊃electricity,␈α∩while␈α⊃in

␈↓ α∧␈↓California that wouldn't be appropriate.



␈↓ α∧␈↓DEALING WITH SHORTAGES

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTEnthusiasts␈α∩for␈α∪conservation␈α∩often␈α∪emphasize␈α∩long␈α∩term␈α∪measures,␈α∩because␈α∪they␈α∩regard

␈↓ α∧␈↓reduced␈α
use␈α
of␈α
energy␈α
as␈α
a␈α
good␈α
in␈α
itself␈αand␈α
wish␈α
to␈α
promote␈α
"a␈α
more␈α
healthy␈α
life␈α
style".␈α Many␈α
of

␈↓ α∧␈↓these␈αmeasures␈αare␈αirrelevant␈αto␈αan␈αacute␈αcrisis.␈α For␈αexample,␈αmaking␈αmore␈αfuel-efficient␈αcars␈αcan

␈↓ α∧␈↓have␈αan␈αeffect␈αover␈αthe␈α10␈αyear␈αlife-cycle␈αof␈αAmerican␈αcars,␈αbut␈αthe␈αbest␈αshort␈αterm␈αmeasure␈αmay

␈↓ α∧␈↓be␈α
to␈αmanufacture␈α
no␈αcars␈α
at␈αall␈α
for␈αthe␈α
duration␈α
of␈αthe␈α
crisis␈αin␈α
order␈αto␈α
divert␈αmanpower,␈α
energy

␈↓ α∧␈↓and other resources into energy production facilities.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTIn␈αthe␈αfollowing␈α
list␈αof␈αconservation␈αmeasures,␈α
we␈αshall␈αtry␈αto␈α
estimate␈αhow␈αquickly␈αeach␈α
can

␈↓ α∧␈↓be put into effect.



␈↓ α∧␈↓HOME HEATING
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ u4


␈↓ α∧␈↓The␈αpossible␈αreactions␈αto␈αa␈αsevere␈αshortage␈αof␈αheating␈αoil␈αare␈αthe␈αfollowing␈αin␈αapproximate␈αorder

␈↓ α∧␈↓of severity:

␈↓ α∧␈↓1.␈α⊂Reduction␈α⊂of␈α∂thermostat␈α⊂settings.␈α⊂ This␈α∂can␈α⊂be␈α⊂done␈α∂immediately␈α⊂at␈α⊂the␈α∂onset␈α⊂of␈α⊂a␈α⊂crisis␈α∂if

␈↓ α∧␈↓people␈α∪are␈α∩willing,␈α∪but␈α∪simply␈α∩jawboning␈α∪harder␈α∩will␈α∪have␈α∪a␈α∩limited␈α∪effect.␈α∪ Fuel␈α∩rationing

␈↓ α∧␈↓accompanied␈αby␈αestimates␈αof␈αthe␈αthermostat␈αsetting␈αneeded␈αto␈αlive␈αwithin␈αthe␈αration␈αwill␈αdo␈αmore.

␈↓ α∧␈↓Each␈α∩local␈α∩area␈α∩should␈α∩keep␈α∩published␈α∩in␈α∩the␈α∩newspapers,␈α∩the␈α∩estimated␈α∩fraction␈α∩of␈α∪the␈α∩oil

␈↓ α∧␈↓consumption␈α
for␈αthe␈α
current␈α
heating␈αseason␈α
in␈α
the␈αcirculation␈α
areas␈α
covered␈αby␈α
the␈αnewspaper␈α
that

␈↓ α∧␈↓should␈α
have␈α
been␈αconsumed␈α
to␈α
date,␈α
so␈αthat␈α
a␈α
householder␈α
can␈αtell␈α
whether␈α
he␈αhas␈α
over-consumed

␈↓ α∧␈↓up␈α
to␈α
a␈α
given␈α
point␈α
and␈α
will␈α
have␈α
to␈α
conserve␈α
harder.␈α
 Relating␈α
oil␈α
consumption␈α
to␈α
the␈α
mildness␈α
or

␈↓ α∧␈↓severity of the winter can then be done locally.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTImprovement␈α⊂of␈α⊃insulation␈α⊂is␈α⊂being␈α⊃encouraged␈α⊂today.␈α⊂ Its␈α⊃effective␈α⊂use␈α⊂beyond␈α⊃what␈α⊂is

␈↓ α∧␈↓being␈αdone␈αat␈α
present␈αseems␈αto␈αbe␈α
intrinsically␈αa␈αlong␈αterm␈α
proposition␈αdepending␈αon␈αnew␈α
housing

␈↓ α∧␈↓or␈αsubstantial␈αremodeling.␈α Moreover,␈αpresent␈αinsulation␈αprograms␈αare␈αcreating␈αsevere␈αproblems␈α
of

␈↓ α∧␈↓indoor␈α
air␈α∞pollution␈α
which␈α
can␈α∞be␈α
fixed␈α∞only␈α
by␈α
introducing␈α∞countercurrent␈α
heat␈α∞exchangers␈α
on

␈↓ α∧␈↓ventilating␈α∂systems.␈α∞ These␈α∂aren't␈α∞available␈α∂in␈α∂the␈α∞U.S.␈α∂at␈α∞present,␈α∂but␈α∞presumably␈α∂they␈α∂will␈α∞be

␈↓ α∧␈↓available soon.

␈↓ α∧␈↓2.␈α∞Cutting␈α
off␈α∞some␈α∞rooms␈α
in␈α∞homes.␈α
 Many␈α∞people␈α∞will␈α
require␈α∞help␈α
in␈α∞adjusting␈α∞their␈α
heating

␈↓ α∧␈↓systems␈αto␈αdo␈αthis␈αand␈αwill␈αtake␈αsome␈αtime␈αto␈αconvince␈αthemselves␈αthat␈αthis␈αis␈αbetter␈αthan␈αrunning

␈↓ α∧␈↓out␈αof␈αfuel␈αration.␈α Many␈αpeople␈αwho␈αdo␈αrun␈αout␈αof␈αtheir␈αration␈αwill␈αbe␈αcoercible␈αinto␈αcutting␈αoff

␈↓ α∧␈↓rooms␈αin␈αorder␈αto␈αget␈αa␈αsupplemental␈αration.␈α Therefore,␈αit␈αwill␈αtake␈αmost␈αof␈αa␈αheating␈αseason␈αfor

␈↓ α∧␈↓this measure to take effect.

␈↓ α∧␈↓3.␈αIncreased␈αuse␈αof␈αfireplaces␈αand␈αstoves.␈α While␈α
firewood␈αis␈αprobably␈αquite␈αlimited␈αas␈αa␈αlong␈α
term

␈↓ α∧␈↓resource,␈α
there␈α
are␈α
many␈α
forests␈α
that␈α
can␈α
be␈α
harvested␈α
for␈α
a␈α
several␈α
year␈α
emergency.␈α Firewood␈α
will

␈↓ α∧␈↓be␈α∂more␈α∂available␈α∂in␈α⊂usable␈α∂only␈α∂in␈α∂certain␈α⊂regions␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂country,␈α⊂and␈α∂its␈α∂use␈α∂is␈α⊂very␈α∂labor-
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ u5


␈↓ α∧␈↓intensive␈α∂compared␈α⊂to␈α∂other␈α⊂energy␈α∂sources.␈α∂ The␈α⊂use␈α∂of␈α⊂coal␈α∂in␈α∂fireplaces␈α⊂and␈α∂stoves␈α⊂has␈α∂the

␈↓ α∧␈↓supply␈α∞advantage␈α
that␈α∞the␈α
amount␈α∞that␈α
can␈α∞be␈α
used␈α∞is␈α
limited␈α∞by␈α
the␈α∞size␈α
of␈α∞the␈α∞fireplaces␈α
and

␈↓ α∧␈↓stoves␈αand␈αthe␈α
time␈αthe␈αhousehold␈α
is␈αwilling␈αto␈α
put␈αin␈αkeeping␈α
them␈αgoing.␈α The␈α
effectiveness␈αof

␈↓ α∧␈↓fireplaces␈αcan␈αbe␈αenhanced␈αby␈αsuitable␈αstove-like␈αinserts.␈α Such␈αuse␈αof␈αcoal␈αwould␈αrestore␈αto␈αsome

␈↓ α∧␈↓extent␈α⊂living␈α⊂conditions␈α⊂that␈α⊂existed␈α⊂before␈α⊂the␈α⊂widespread␈α⊂adoption␈α⊂of␈α⊂central␈α⊂heating.␈α⊂ Coal

␈↓ α∧␈↓distribution␈α∂could␈α∂be␈α∂established␈α∂within␈α∂days.␈α∞ The␈α∂companies␈α∂now␈α∂distributing␈α∂oil␈α∂would␈α∞only

␈↓ α∧␈↓have␈α
to␈α
hire␈α
other␈α
trucks␈α
and␈α
more␈α
people.␈α
 We␈α
can␈α
also␈α
expect␈α
many␈α
house␈α
fires␈α
especially␈αat␈α
first

␈↓ α∧␈↓before␈α⊂knowledge␈α⊃of␈α⊂the␈α⊂necessary␈α⊃precautions␈α⊂is␈α⊂widespread.␈α⊃ Perhaps␈α⊂many␈α⊃older␈α⊂apartment

␈↓ α∧␈↓buildings␈α∩can␈α∩be␈α∩reconverted␈α∩to␈α∩coal,␈α∩but␈α⊃this␈α∩will␈α∩require␈α∩more␈α∩manpower␈α∩for␈α∩stoking␈α⊃and

␈↓ α∧␈↓carrying out ash.  If the cutoff causes substantial unemployment, the manpower will be available.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈αresulting␈αpollution,␈αlike␈αthat␈αendured␈αbefore␈αwidespread␈αconversion␈αto␈αoil␈αstoves␈α(1920s

␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈α∂1930s?),␈α∂will␈α∞have␈α∂a␈α∂certain␈α∞ironic␈α∂appropriateness,␈α∂since␈α∞it␈α∂will␈α∂be␈α∞caused␈α∂in␈α∂a␈α∞substantial

␈↓ α∧␈↓degree␈α
by␈α
the␈αsuccess␈α
of␈α
the␈αenvironmentalists␈α
in␈α
hampering␈αnew␈α
energy␈α
sources.␈α Unfortunately,

␈↓ α∧␈↓we will all suffer for their success.

␈↓ α∧␈↓4.␈α
Increased␈α
use␈αof␈α
small␈α
electric␈αheaters.␈α
 Many␈α
of␈αthese␈α
are␈α
already␈αin␈α
the␈α
hands␈α
of␈αconsumers,

␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈αthey␈αare␈αa␈αconvenient␈αway␈αof␈αsupplementing␈αlow␈αthermostat␈αsettings␈αto␈αachieve␈αlocal␈αcomfort.

␈↓ α∧␈↓Most␈αlikely,␈αthey␈αsave␈αoil␈αcompared␈αto␈αa␈αhigher␈αthermostat␈αsetting␈αwhen␈αused␈αin␈αmoderation␈αeven

␈↓ α∧␈↓when␈α
the␈α∞electricity␈α
is␈α∞generated␈α
by␈α
burning␈α∞oil,␈α
since␈α∞they␈α
heat␈α
people␈α∞sitting␈α
near␈α∞them␈α
rather

␈↓ α∧␈↓than a whole room.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTSpot␈α
oil␈α
shortages␈α
or␈α
price␈α
or␈α
rationing␈αmay␈α
force␈α
some␈α
people␈α
to␈α
do␈α
without␈αcentral␈α
heating.

␈↓ α∧␈↓They␈αwill␈α
have␈αto␈αrely␈α
on␈αcoal␈αor␈α
wood␈αstoves␈αor␈α
electric␈αheaters.␈α Small␈α
electric␈αheaters␈α
are␈αvery

␈↓ α∧␈↓prevalent␈α
in␈α∞English␈α
homes␈α∞with␈α
bad␈α∞or␈α
no␈α∞central␈α
heating␈α∞and␈α
they␈α∞can␈α
be␈α∞manufactured␈α
and

␈↓ α∧␈↓sold␈αin␈αa␈αhurry.␈α When␈αbusinesses␈αturn␈αdown␈αthe␈αthermostats,␈αthey␈αare␈αthe␈αimmediate␈αreaction␈αof

␈↓ α∧␈↓the secretaries.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ u6


␈↓ α∧␈↓5.␈α∂Increased␈α∂use␈α∞of␈α∂electricity␈α∂for␈α∂central␈α∞heating.␈α∂ In␈α∂parts␈α∞of␈α∂the␈α∂country␈α∂generating␈α∞electricity

␈↓ α∧␈↓from␈α⊃nuclear␈α⊂and␈α⊃coal␈α⊂plants␈α⊃and␈α⊂with␈α⊃poor␈α⊂electric␈α⊃interties,␈α⊂present␈α⊃users␈α⊂of␈α⊃electric␈α⊂central

␈↓ α∧␈↓heating␈αmay␈αsuffer␈αvery␈αlittle␈αin␈αthe␈αshort␈αrun.␈α In␈αthe␈αmedium␈αrun,␈αthey␈αwill␈αhave␈αto␈αshare␈αtheir

␈↓ α∧␈↓electricity␈αwith␈αthe␈α
increased␈αuse␈αof␈α
small␈αelectric␈αheaters,␈α
and␈αas␈αmore␈α
nuclear␈αand␈αcoal␈αcapacity␈α
is

␈↓ α∧␈↓introduced,␈αmore␈αpeople␈α
should␈αbe␈αencouraged␈αto␈α
convert␈αto␈αresistance␈α
heating␈αand␈αheat␈αpumps␈α
as

␈↓ α∧␈↓a␈αlong␈αterm␈αsolution.␈α It␈αwould␈αseem␈αthat␈αinstallation␈αof␈αelectric␈αheating␈αwould␈αbe␈αlimited␈αmore␈αby

␈↓ α∧␈↓electric␈αsupply␈α
than␈αby␈αability␈α
to␈αperform␈αthe␈α
installations.␈α Where␈αelectricity␈α
is␈αgenerated␈αfrom␈α
oil,

␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α⊃problem␈α⊂is␈α⊃greater,␈α⊂and␈α⊃electricity␈α⊃rationing␈α⊂may␈α⊃force␈α⊂users␈α⊃of␈α⊂central␈α⊃electric␈α⊃heating␈α⊂to

␈↓ α∧␈↓convert␈αto␈αsmall␈αlocal␈αheaters.␈α However,␈αresistance␈αheating␈αsystems␈αare␈αmodifiable␈αwithin␈αdays␈αto

␈↓ α∧␈↓heat␈α
only␈α
part␈α
of␈α
a␈α
house.␈α
 Since␈α∞electric␈α
heating␈α
is␈α
probably␈α
the␈α
long␈α
term␈α
solution␈α∞anyway,␈α
we

␈↓ α∧␈↓can␈α
visualize␈α
the␈αcrisis␈α
ending␈α
gradually␈α
by␈αincreased␈α
rations,␈α
the␈αeventual␈α
end␈α
of␈α
rationing␈αand

␈↓ α∧␈↓declining real prices for electricity.

␈↓ α∧␈↓6.␈α⊃Temporary␈α⊃abandonment␈α∩of␈α⊃housing␈α⊃that␈α∩their␈α⊃users␈α⊃cannot␈α⊃afford␈α∩to␈α⊃heat.␈α⊃ One␈α∩use␈α⊃we

␈↓ α∧␈↓Americans␈αhave␈αmade␈αof␈αour␈αprosperity␈αis␈αto␈αincrease␈αthe␈αnumber␈αof␈αhouseholds.␈α Children␈αmove

␈↓ α∧␈↓out␈α∞of␈α∞their␈α∞parents'␈α∞homes␈α∞younger.␈α∞ Old␈α∞people␈α∞maintain␈α∞their␈α∞independence␈α∞longer.␈α∞ Couples

␈↓ α∧␈↓with differences separate more readily.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTA␈α⊃shortage␈α⊃of␈α⊃heat␈α⊃would␈α⊃temporarily␈α⊃reverse␈α⊃this␈α⊃development.␈α⊃ In␈α⊃nineteenth␈α⊃century

␈↓ α∧␈↓literature,␈α
we␈α
often␈α
read␈α
that␈αold␈α
people␈α
could␈α
not␈α
maintain␈αtheir␈α
homes␈α
without␈α
someone␈α
to␈αcut

␈↓ α∧␈↓firewood␈α
for␈α
them.␈α This␈α
process␈α
can␈αbe␈α
repeated.␈α
 In␈αmany␈α
countries␈α
today,␈αit␈α
is␈α
rare␈α
for␈αyoung

␈↓ α∧␈↓people␈α
to␈α∞acquire␈α
apartments␈α
or␈α∞houses␈α
until␈α∞marriage␈α
and␈α
difficult␈α∞right␈α
after␈α∞marriage.␈α
 Some

␈↓ α∧␈↓other␈αcountries␈α
have␈αmore␈α
sharply␈αage-related␈αsalary␈α
structures␈αthan␈α
we␈αdo,␈α
so␈αthat␈αyoung␈α
workers

␈↓ α∧␈↓can␈αonly␈αafford␈αto␈αlive␈αin␈αdormitories.␈α Moving␈αtowards␈αsuch␈αa␈αstructure,␈αfor␈αexample␈αby␈αheating

␈↓ α∧␈↓subsidies␈αrestricted␈αto␈αfamilies,␈αmight␈αcause␈αa␈αlarge␈αsaving.␈α Judging␈αfrom␈αobservation␈αin␈αBritain,

␈↓ α∧␈↓most␈α
families␈α
will␈α
prefer␈α
shivering␈α
to␈α
crowding␈α
and␈α
will␈α
make␈α
do␈α
with␈α
closing␈α
rooms␈αand␈α
crowding

␈↓ α∧␈↓around the fireplace rather than share apartments.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ u7


␈↓ α∧␈↓7.␈αEvacuating␈αsome␈αpeople␈αto␈αa␈αwarmer␈αclimate.␈α It␈αseems␈αto␈αme␈αthat␈αthis␈αwouldn't␈αbe␈αcalled␈αfor␈α
in

␈↓ α∧␈↓any␈α
likely␈α
emergency,␈α∞but␈α
one␈α
could␈α∞imagine␈α
evacuating␈α
children␈α∞and␈α
other␈α
dependents␈α∞to␈α
areas

␈↓ α∧␈↓with␈α
a␈α∞warm␈α
climate␈α∞or␈α
not␈α∞dependent␈α
on␈α
oil␈α∞for␈α
heating,␈α∞while␈α
essential␈α∞workers␈α
would␈α∞live␈α
in

␈↓ α∧␈↓dormitories near their work.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTSome␈α∞acceleration␈α∞of␈α∞the␈α∞existing␈α∞tendency␈α∞for␈α∞retired␈α∞people␈α∞to␈α∞move␈α∞to␈α∞warmer␈α∞climates

␈↓ α∧␈↓would␈αbe␈α
expected.␈α Indeed␈α
an␈αoil␈αcutoff␈α
would␈αaccelerate␈α
migration␈αto␈αparts␈α
of␈αthe␈α
country␈αwith

␈↓ α∧␈↓mild␈αclimates.␈α Probably␈αthere␈αare␈αother␈αphenomena␈αlike␈αthis␈α-␈αa␈αpossible␈αspontaneous␈αadaptation

␈↓ α∧␈↓to changed circumstances that will reduce the need for government action.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α⊂unpleasantness,␈α⊂inconvenience␈α⊂and␈α⊂pollution␈α⊂resulting␈α⊂from␈α⊂all␈α⊂the␈α⊃above␈α⊂measures,

␈↓ α∧␈↓which␈α
will␈α
be␈α
found␈αpreferable␈α
to␈α
freezing,␈α
will␈α
generate␈αand␈α
maintain␈α
support␈α
for␈αcrash␈α
programs

␈↓ α∧␈↓for energy production.



␈↓ α∧␈↓INDUSTRIAL USE

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTAfter␈αtransportation,␈αthe␈α
largest␈αconsumer␈αof␈αoil␈α
is␈αindustry.␈α A␈α
severe␈αoil␈αcutoff␈αwill␈α
require

␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α
temporary␈α
cessation␈αof␈α
some␈α
industrial␈α
activities.␈α From␈α
the␈α
point␈α
of␈αview␈α
of␈α
the␈α
products␈αof

␈↓ α∧␈↓industry␈α
this␈α
may␈α
not␈α
be␈α
so␈α
serious,␈α
because␈αwe␈α
can␈α
do␈α
without␈α
the␈α
products␈α
of␈α
many␈αindustries

␈↓ α∧␈↓for␈αa␈αlong␈αtime,␈αbecause␈αwe␈αare␈αalready␈αso␈αwell␈αsupplied.␈α For␈αexample,␈αno␈αcivilian␈αpassenger␈αcars

␈↓ α∧␈↓were␈α
produced␈α∞during␈α
World␈α∞War␈α
II,␈α
and␈α∞our␈α
150␈α∞million␈α
registered␈α
vehicles␈α∞would␈α
last␈α∞a␈α
long

␈↓ α∧␈↓time␈α∞without␈α∞much␈α∞hardship.␈α∂ We␈α∞could␈α∞also␈α∞make␈α∞our␈α∂TVs␈α∞and␈α∞stereos␈α∞and␈α∂major␈α∞household

␈↓ α∧␈↓appliances last a long time.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTSince␈α∪industry␈α∩cannot␈α∪afford␈α∪to␈α∩pay␈α∪workers␈α∩if␈α∪they␈α∪can't␈α∩manufacture,␈α∪the␈α∪specter␈α∩is

␈↓ α∧␈↓unemployment.␈α∞ This␈α∞may␈α∞indeed␈α
be␈α∞the␈α∞problem,␈α∞but␈α∞it␈α
should␈α∞be␈α∞mitigated␈α∞by␈α∞industrial␈α
and

␈↓ α∧␈↓construction␈α∂mobilization␈α∂for␈α∞the␈α∂production␈α∂of␈α∞energy␈α∂facilities␈α∂-␈α∞perhaps␈α∂using␈α∂somewhat␈α∞less

␈↓ α∧␈↓energy␈αintensive␈αmeans␈αof␈αproducing␈αthese␈αfacilities␈αthan␈αif␈αthere␈αweren't␈αa␈αcrisis,␈αe.g.␈αthe␈αworkers
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ u8


␈↓ α∧␈↓may␈αhave␈αto␈αlive␈αin␈αbarracks␈αrather␈αthan␈αcommute␈αfrom␈αtheir␈αhomes.␈α Expanded␈αuse␈αof␈αcoal␈αwill

␈↓ α∧␈↓also create jobs - unpleasant ones.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTA␈α∞severe␈α∞energy␈α∞cutoff␈α∞will␈α∞force␈α∞a␈α∞reduction␈α∞in␈α∞standard␈α∞of␈α∞living,␈α∞but␈α∞many␈α∂people␈α∞are

␈↓ α∧␈↓legally␈α∪protected␈α∩against␈α∪reductions␈α∩in␈α∪standard␈α∪of␈α∩living␈α∪by␈α∩cost␈α∪of␈α∩living␈α∪clauses␈α∪in␈α∩labor

␈↓ α∧␈↓contracts␈α
and␈αin␈α
laws␈α
governing␈αtransfer␈α
payments.␈α
 The␈αbest␈α
way␈α
to␈αdeal␈α
with␈α
this␈αis␈α
by␈αpassing␈α
a

␈↓ α∧␈↓law␈α⊂reducing␈α⊃the␈α⊂standard␈α⊃of␈α⊂living␈α⊃-␈α⊂namely␈α⊂a␈α⊃law␈α⊂that␈α⊃say␈α⊂that␈α⊃all␈α⊂payments␈α⊃regulated␈α⊂by

␈↓ α∧␈↓escalator␈αclauses␈αwill␈α
go␈αup␈αonly␈αhalf␈α
as␈αfast␈αas␈α
the␈αrate␈αof␈αinflation␈α
until␈αthe␈αrequired␈αreduction␈α
is

␈↓ α∧␈↓realized.



␈↓ α∧␈↓TRANSPORTATION

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTTransportation␈αoffers␈αthe␈αgreatest␈αproblems␈αfrom␈αan␈αoil␈αcutoff,␈αsince␈αmost␈αof␈αour␈αpetroleum

␈↓ α∧␈↓is used in transportation.  The following measures must be considered:

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT1.␈αRestrictions␈αon␈αpleasure␈αdriving␈αenforced␈αby␈αgasoline␈αrationing␈αand/or␈αhigh␈αprices.␈α In␈αso

␈↓ α∧␈↓far as the driving is recreational, obviously high prices are the better solution.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT2.␈α⊂Enforced␈α∂car␈α⊂pooling␈α∂by␈α⊂giving␈α∂rations␈α⊂to␈α∂pools.␈α⊂ There␈α∂is␈α⊂a␈α∂tendency␈α⊂to␈α⊂regard␈α∂car-

␈↓ α∧␈↓pooling␈αas␈α
a␈αvirtue␈α
in␈αitself,␈αbut␈α
we␈αshould␈α
not␈αlose␈α
sight␈αof␈αits␈α
costs␈αto␈α
the␈αindividual␈αin␈α
enforcing

␈↓ α∧␈↓a rigid schedule without side trips to run errands.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT3. Increased buses and other public transportation.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT4. Forcing people to move closer to their work by restrictions on transportation.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT5.␈α
Provision␈α
of␈α∞dormitories␈α
near␈α
work␈α∞or␈α
connected␈α
to␈α∞it␈α
by␈α
buses␈α∞for␈α
young␈α
or␈α∞other␈α
low

␈↓ α∧␈↓status workers.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT6.␈α↔Encouraging␈α↔hitchhiking,␈α↔perhaps␈α↔by␈α↔issuing␈α↔people␈α↔who␈α↔rate␈α↔it,␈α_"certificates␈α↔of

␈↓ α∧␈↓respectability".

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT7. Commuters would pay a premium for existing small cars.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT8. Many businesses would switch to a four day work week.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ u9


␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT9.␈α
Stores␈α
might␈α
arrange␈α∞fuel-efficient␈α
delivery␈α
routes␈α
-␈α
at␈α∞the␈α
cost␈α
to␈α
the␈α
customer␈α∞of␈α
slow

␈↓ α∧␈↓delivery.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT10. There would be further increased use of motorcycles and mopeds.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTIf␈α
we␈αcould␈α
use␈α
all␈αpetroleum␈α
for␈αtransportation,␈α
our␈α
domestic␈αresources␈α
would␈αalmost␈α
suffice

␈↓ α∧␈↓provided␈α⊃export␈α⊃of␈α⊃oil␈α∩were␈α⊃not␈α⊃required,␈α⊃so␈α⊃conserving␈α∩oil␈α⊃in␈α⊃its␈α⊃other␈α⊃applications␈α∩is␈α⊃very

␈↓ α∧␈↓important.



␈↓ α∧␈↓RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThere␈αare␈αtwo␈αways␈αof␈αdetermining␈αthe␈αeffects␈αof␈αa␈αsevere␈αenergy␈αcrunch␈αand␈αhow␈αit␈αmight

␈↓ α∧␈↓be␈α⊂affected␈α⊂by␈α⊂policies.␈α⊂ One␈α⊂is␈α⊂to␈α⊂work␈α⊂it␈α⊂out␈α⊂"mathematically"␈α⊂using␈α⊂statistics␈α⊃of␈α⊂population,

␈↓ α∧␈↓energy␈αsources,␈αetc.␈α The␈αother␈αis␈αto␈αlook␈αat␈αour␈αless␈αaffluent␈αpast␈αand␈αthe␈αpresent␈αof␈αless␈αaffluent

␈↓ α∧␈↓countries.␈α∂ Most␈α∞likely␈α∂we␈α∞will␈α∂find␈α∞substantial␈α∂variations␈α∞among␈α∂countries␈α∞at␈α∂the␈α∞same␈α∂level␈α∞of

␈↓ α∧␈↓availability␈αof␈αdomestic␈αenergy,␈αbut␈αpredictions␈αfar␈αoutside␈αthe␈αenvelope␈αof␈αother␈αcountries␈αshould

␈↓ α∧␈↓be discounted.



␈↓ α∧␈↓SUBSTITUTING␈α→COMMUNICATION␈α→AND␈α_COMPUTATION␈α→FOR␈α→TRAVEL␈α_AND

␈↓ α∧␈↓COMMUTING

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTMany␈α∪thinkers␈α∀have␈α∪proposed␈α∪that␈α∀much␈α∪of␈α∀the␈α∪travel␈α∪and␈α∀commuting␈α∪people␈α∀do␈α∪is

␈↓ α∧␈↓unnecessary␈α
and␈αcan␈α
be␈αreplaced␈α
by␈αelectronic␈α
communication␈αand␈α
that␈αcomputers␈α
make␈αthis␈α
much

␈↓ α∧␈↓easier.␈α
 We␈αshall␈α
consider␈αwhat␈α
could␈α
be␈αdone␈α
in␈αthis␈α
direction␈α
as␈αan␈α
emergency␈αmeasure␈α
following

␈↓ α∧␈↓an oil cutoff.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT1.␈αMany␈α
face-to-face␈αmeetings␈α
can␈αbe␈αreplaced␈α
by␈αconference␈α
telephone␈αcalls.␈α
 People␈αdon't

␈↓ α∧␈↓like␈α
conference␈α
calls␈α
very␈αmuch,␈α
but␈α
the␈α
few␈α
times␈αI␈α
have␈α
tried␈α
to␈αuse␈α
them,␈α
they␈α
have␈α
done␈αthe

␈↓ α∧␈↓job,␈α
and␈αno-one␈α
felt␈αthe␈α
need␈αfor␈α
a␈αface-to-face␈α
meeting.␈α There␈α
is␈αsufficient␈α
telephone␈αcapacity␈α
so
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ f10


␈↓ α∧␈↓that␈α⊗a␈α⊗policy␈α⊗of␈α⊗permitting␈α⊗only␈α⊗essential␈α↔travel␈α⊗as␈α⊗in␈α⊗World␈α⊗War␈α⊗II␈α⊗would␈α↔work␈α⊗well.

␈↓ α∧␈↓Organizations␈αwould␈αhave␈αto␈αdecide␈αwhich␈αmeetings␈αwould␈αbe␈αreplaced␈αby␈αconference␈αcalls.␈α Most

␈↓ α∧␈↓likely␈αthe␈αformal␈α
agenda␈αof␈αthis␈α
conference␈αcould␈αbe␈αhandled␈α
by␈αa␈αlarge␈α
conference␈αcall,␈αbut␈α
it␈αis

␈↓ α∧␈↓doubtful␈α
that␈αpeople␈α
could␈αget␈α
acquainted␈αthat␈α
way,␈α
and␈αfor␈α
many␈αof␈α
us,␈αgetting␈α
acquainted␈α
is␈αa

␈↓ α∧␈↓major␈α∀value␈α∀of␈α∃the␈α∀meeting.␈α∀ Therefore,␈α∃regular␈α∀meetings␈α∀are␈α∃a␈α∀better␈α∀candidate␈α∃for␈α∀such

␈↓ α∧␈↓replacement.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT2.␈α⊂A␈α⊃more␈α⊂elaborate␈α⊂version␈α⊃of␈α⊂the␈α⊃conference␈α⊂call␈α⊂called␈α⊃teleconferencing␈α⊂in␈α⊃which␈α⊂the

␈↓ α∧␈↓participants␈α∀have␈α∀video␈α∀terminals␈α∪as␈α∀well␈α∀as␈α∀telephones␈α∪has␈α∀been␈α∀the␈α∀subject␈α∀of␈α∪successful

␈↓ α∧␈↓experiments.␈α∞ In␈α∞some␈α∞cases,␈α
the␈α∞ability␈α∞to␈α∞communicate␈α
with␈α∞the␈α∞chairman␈α∞without␈α
interrupting

␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α⊂current␈α⊂speaker␈α∂makes␈α⊂the␈α⊂teleconference␈α∂even␈α⊂more␈α⊂effective␈α∂than␈α⊂a␈α⊂face-to-face␈α∂meeting.

␈↓ α∧␈↓Teleconference␈α∞facilities␈α
are␈α∞today␈α∞rather␈α
ill-defined,␈α∞but␈α∞I␈α
would␈α∞suppose␈α∞that␈α
the␈α∞experts␈α∞in␈α
it

␈↓ α∧␈↓could␈α∀make␈α∃proposals␈α∀for␈α∃a␈α∀standard␈α∃system␈α∀that␈α∃could␈α∀be␈α∃implemented␈α∀by␈α∃the␈α∀telephone

␈↓ α∧␈↓companies in less than a year.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT3.␈α⊂Much␈α⊂office␈α∂work␈α⊂could␈α⊂be␈α⊂done␈α∂at␈α⊂home␈α⊂with␈α∂suitable␈α⊂home␈α⊂terminals␈α⊂connected␈α∂to

␈↓ α∧␈↓office␈α⊃computers.␈α⊃ The␈α⊃terminals␈α⊂are␈α⊃available␈α⊃and␈α⊃their␈α⊂rate␈α⊃of␈α⊃manufacture␈α⊃could␈α⊃easily␈α⊂be

␈↓ α∧␈↓increased.␈α
 However,␈α∞relatively␈α
few␈α
offices␈α∞do␈α
their␈α
main␈α∞work␈α
through␈α
computer␈α∞terminals,␈α
and

␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α
system␈α
design␈α
and␈αprogramming␈α
required␈α
to␈α
convert␈αmany␈α
offices␈α
of␈α
many␈αdifferent␈α
businesses

␈↓ α∧␈↓would␈α
take␈α
several␈α∞years␈α
after␈α
a␈α∞commitment␈α
to␈α
convert␈α
at␈α∞present␈α
development␈α
pace.␈α∞ With␈α
the

␈↓ α∧␈↓urgency␈α∞of␈α
an␈α∞emergency,␈α
it␈α∞might␈α
be␈α∞done␈α∞faster,␈α
but␈α∞learning␈α
about␈α∞new␈α
ways␈α∞of␈α∞doing␈α
office

␈↓ α∧␈↓work would compete with other urgent learning tasks.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTOffices␈α∃whose␈α∃main␈α∀work␈α∃involves␈α∃the␈α∀production␈α∃of␈α∃documents␈α∀might␈α∃be␈α∃the␈α∀most

␈↓ α∧␈↓straightforward␈αcandidate␈αfor␈αconversion.␈α A␈αsystem␈αadequate␈αfor␈αa␈αlaw␈αoffice␈αof␈α10␈αto␈α40␈αlawyers

␈↓ α∧␈↓might␈α∩be␈α∩based␈α∩on␈α∪a␈α∩Digital␈α∩Equipment␈α∩Corporation␈α∪VAX␈α∩computer␈α∩and␈α∩would␈α∪cost␈α∩from

␈↓ α∧␈↓$150,000␈α
to␈α$200,000.␈α
 Extensive␈αuse␈α
of␈α
the␈αtelephone␈α
would␈αalso␈α
be␈αrequired.␈α
 A␈α
suitable␈αsystem
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ f11


␈↓ α∧␈↓for␈α
law␈α
offices␈α
could␈α
be␈α
adapted␈α
from␈α
present␈α
time-sharing␈α
systems␈α
about␈α
as␈α
fast␈α∞as␈α
educational

␈↓ α∧␈↓material␈αcould␈αbe␈αwritten.␈α The␈αsystem␈αwould␈αalso␈αdo␈αfor␈αmany␈αgovernment␈αoffices␈αas␈αwell.␈α Once

␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈αsystem␈αwas␈αin␈αplace,␈αthere␈αmight␈αonly␈αbe␈αone␈αor␈αtwo␈αdays␈αa␈αweek␈αwhen␈αpeople␈αwould␈αcome␈αin

␈↓ α∧␈↓to the office.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT4.␈α∂Another␈α⊂function␈α∂that␈α⊂could␈α∂be␈α⊂carried␈α∂out␈α∂at␈α⊂home␈α∂is␈α⊂that␈α∂of␈α⊂telephone␈α∂information

␈↓ α∧␈↓operator␈α
or␈α
reservation␈α
clerk␈α
or␈α
order␈α
taker␈αusing␈α
a␈α
computer␈α
system.␈α
 Such␈α
a␈α
system,␈αemploying

␈↓ α∧␈↓people␈α∂who␈α∞would␈α∂work␈α∂at␈α∞home,␈α∂would␈α∂be␈α∞economical␈α∂today,␈α∞since␈α∂it␈α∂could␈α∞obviate␈α∂a␈α∂need␈α∞to

␈↓ α∧␈↓expand␈α∂rented␈α∂office␈α∞space␈α∂in␈α∂many␈α∞cases.␈α∂ Such␈α∂systems␈α∞could␈α∂be␈α∂implemented␈α∞in␈α∂a␈α∂month␈α∞in

␈↓ α∧␈↓many␈α∪cities␈α∪where␈α∪there␈α∪is␈α∪enough␈α∪spare␈α∪telephone␈α∪capacity.␈α∪ The␈α∪main␈α∪problem␈α∪would␈α∪be

␈↓ α∧␈↓adapting the supervisory and training systems.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTWhile␈αa␈αcrisis␈αwould␈αspeed␈αthe␈αdevelopment␈αof␈αsuch␈αsystems,␈αthey␈αwill␈αoccur␈αanyway,␈αand␈αif

␈↓ α∧␈↓they are instituted during a crisis, many of them would be retained after the crisis was over.



␈↓ α∧␈↓THE POLITICAL SETTING OF THE CRISIS

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTWe make the following suppositions regarding the setting of the crisis:

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT1. The crisis is caused by enemies who cut off our imports.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT2.␈α∩We␈α∪undertake␈α∩to␈α∩share␈α∪our␈α∩own␈α∩supplies␈α∪of␈α∩oil␈α∩with␈α∪allies␈α∩who␈α∩have␈α∪no␈α∩domestic

␈↓ α∧␈↓production.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT3.␈αNo␈α
substantial␈αpart␈α
of␈αthe␈α
American␈αpopulation␈α
regards␈αthe␈α
crisis␈αas␈α
our␈αown␈α
fault␈αand

␈↓ α∧␈↓supports our enemies.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT4.␈αWishful␈αthinking␈αthat␈αthe␈αcrisis␈αwill␈αsoon␈αbe␈αover␈αis␈αprevalent,␈αbut␈αthe␈αPresident␈αfinds␈αit

␈↓ α∧␈↓prudent to act as if the cutoff were permanent.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT5.␈αThe␈αbelief␈αthat␈αwe␈αcannot␈αproduce␈αour␈αway␈αout␈αof␈αthe␈αcrisis␈αwill␈αbe␈αwidespread␈αand␈αwill

␈↓ α∧␈↓require␈α∂determined␈α∂efforts␈α∂by␈α∂our␈α∂political␈α∂leadership␈α∂to␈α∂overcome.␈α∂ Since␈α∂1973,␈α∂this␈α∂belief␈α∞has
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ f12


␈↓ α∧␈↓played␈αan␈αideological␈αrole␈αin␈αsupport␈αof␈αthe␈αidea␈αof␈αbasing␈αour␈αmain␈αenergy␈αpolicy␈αon␈αdoing␈αwith

␈↓ α∧␈↓less energy.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT6.␈α→An␈α→industrial␈α→mobilization␈α→will␈α_be␈α→undertaken␈α→to␈α→build␈α→energy␈α→facilities.␈α_ This

␈↓ α∧␈↓mobilization␈α⊃will␈α⊃require␈α⊃many␈α⊃people␈α⊃to␈α∩change␈α⊃their␈α⊃jobs␈α⊃and␈α⊃will␈α⊃require␈α∩giving␈α⊃essential

␈↓ α∧␈↓activities␈αpriority.␈α Some␈αindustries␈αmay␈αsuspend␈αproduction␈αof␈αtheir␈αconventional␈αproducts␈αas␈αthe

␈↓ α∧␈↓automobile␈αindustry␈αsuspended␈αproduction␈αof␈αpassenger␈αcars␈αduring␈αWorld␈αWar␈αII.␈α Colleges␈αand

␈↓ α∧␈↓universities also constitute a vast reservoir of manpower.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT7.␈α
Sacrifices␈αwill␈α
necessarily␈αbe␈α
uneven.␈α No␈α
plan␈αcan␈α
be␈αdevised␈α
that␈αeveryone␈α
will␈αregard

␈↓ α∧␈↓as␈α
fair,␈α
and␈α
there␈α
won't␈α
be␈α
time␈α
to␈α
work␈αout␈α
a␈α
plan␈α
that␈α
representatives␈α
of␈α
all␈α
groups␈α
in␈αsociety␈α
will

␈↓ α∧␈↓regard␈αas␈αfair.␈α The␈αmost␈αthat␈αcan␈αbe␈αexpected␈αis␈αthat␈αthe␈αtop␈αpolitical␈αleaders␈αcan␈αbe␈αregarded␈αas

␈↓ α∧␈↓trying␈αto␈αbe␈αfair.␈α Most␈αpeople␈αwill␈αgrumble␈α
that␈αsome␈αother␈αgroup␈αhas␈αdone␈αbetter␈αbut␈αwill␈α
accept

␈↓ α∧␈↓the result as "the breaks".



␈↓ α∧␈↓IDEOLOGY AND THE CRISIS

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThere␈αare␈αtwo␈αattitudes␈αthat␈αwould␈αbe␈αtaken␈αtowards␈αthe␈αconservation␈αmeasures␈αthat␈αmight

␈↓ α∧␈↓be␈αnecessitated␈αby␈αan␈αoil␈αcutoff.␈α One␈αis␈αthat␈αthey␈αare␈αa␈α"punishment␈αfor␈αour␈αgreediness"␈αand␈αthat

␈↓ α∧␈↓we␈αneed␈α"tough"␈αlaws␈αand␈α"strict"␈αregulations␈αso␈αthat␈αwe␈αwill␈αbe␈α"frugal"␈αin␈αthe␈αfuture.␈α The␈αother

␈↓ α∧␈↓is␈αthat␈αthe␈α
crisis␈αis␈αtemporary␈αand␈α
is␈αto␈αbe␈αovercome␈α
by␈αa␈αcrash␈αprogram␈α
to␈αproduce␈αall␈αthe␈α
energy

␈↓ α∧␈↓we need or even want.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α∂issue␈α∂between␈α⊂these␈α∂two␈α∂attitudes␈α∂has␈α⊂a␈α∂technological␈α∂component␈α∂and␈α⊂an␈α∂ideological

␈↓ α∧␈↓component.␈α⊂ Perhaps␈α⊂we␈α⊂may␈α⊂also␈α⊂distinguish␈α⊂a␈α⊂component␈α⊂involving␈α⊂individual␈α⊃values.␈α⊂ The

␈↓ α∧␈↓technological␈α∞issue␈α
is␈α∞whether␈α∞there␈α
are␈α∞technologies,␈α∞economic␈α
resources,␈α∞and␈α∞management␈α
skills

␈↓ α∧␈↓that␈αcan␈α
put␈αnew␈α
energy␈αproduction␈αfacilities␈α
in␈αplace␈α
in␈αa␈αgiven␈α
time.␈α The␈α
rest␈αof␈αthis␈α
conference

␈↓ α∧␈↓is␈αdedicated␈αto␈αthis␈αissue,␈αand␈αI␈αthink␈αit␈αis␈αclear␈αthat␈αwe␈αcan␈αproduce␈αour␈αway␈αout␈αof␈αany␈α
plausible

␈↓ α∧␈↓crisis.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ f13


␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈αissue␈αof␈α
individual␈αvalues␈αis␈αwhether␈α
an␈αindividual␈αprefers␈αto␈α
pay␈αthe␈αincreased␈αcost␈α
of

␈↓ α∧␈↓our␈α∞present␈α∞consumption␈α∞of␈α∞energy␈α∞or␈α∞prefers␈α∞to␈α∞live␈α∞more␈α∞frugally.␈α∞ Obviously␈α∞the␈α∞answer␈α
will

␈↓ α∧␈↓depend␈αon␈α
the␈αindividual,␈α
but␈αI␈αthink␈α
it␈αcan␈α
be␈αshown␈αthat␈α
in␈αthe␈α
present␈αas␈αin␈α
the␈αpast␈α
and␈αin

␈↓ α∧␈↓America␈α∞as␈α∂in␈α∞other␈α∞countries,␈α∂people␈α∞mainly␈α∞migrate␈α∂in␈α∞the␈α∞direction␈α∂of␈α∞the␈α∞higher␈α∂per␈α∞capita

␈↓ α∧␈↓GNP.  Given a choice, people will pay the cost of a high energy life style.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTA␈αfirst␈αlook␈αat␈αhow␈αAmericans␈αhave␈αused␈αthe␈αincrease␈αsince␈αWorld␈αWar␈αII␈αin␈αour␈αability␈αto

␈↓ α∧␈↓buy␈α⊂energy␈α⊂indicates␈α∂that␈α⊂we␈α⊂have␈α⊂used␈α∂it␈α⊂reasonably␈α⊂well␈α⊂given␈α∂the␈α⊂level␈α⊂of␈α⊂technology␈α∂then

␈↓ α∧␈↓available.␈α∂ Increased␈α∂mobility␈α∂has␈α∂made␈α∂the␈α∂choices␈α∂of␈α∂where␈α∂to␈α∂live␈α∂and␈α∂where␈α∂to␈α⊂work␈α∂more

␈↓ α∧␈↓independent␈α∩and␈α∪has␈α∩permitted␈α∪more␈α∩freedom␈α∩in␈α∪recreation.␈α∩ Larger␈α∪and␈α∩more␈α∪housing␈α∩has

␈↓ α∧␈↓relieved␈αcrowding,␈αmade␈αit␈αpossible␈αfor␈αthe␈αyoung␈αto␈αhave␈αtheir␈αown␈αapartments␈αat␈αan␈αearlier␈αage,

␈↓ α∧␈↓has␈αmade␈αit␈αpossible␈αfor␈αold␈αpeople␈αto␈αretain␈αtheir␈αindependence␈αlonger,␈αand␈αhas␈αmade␈αit␈αpossible

␈↓ α∧␈↓for␈αcouples␈αwho␈α
can't␈αget␈αalong␈α
to␈αseparate.␈α From␈α
1950␈αto␈α1976,␈α
the␈αU.S.␈αpopulation␈αmultiplied␈α
by

␈↓ α∧␈↓1.43, but housing units by 1.73.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α∩ideological␈α∩issue␈α∩of␈α∩what␈α∩do␈α∩do␈α∩about␈α∩an␈α∩oil␈α∩cutoff␈α∩is␈α∩whether␈α∩crash␈α∩production

␈↓ α∧␈↓programs,␈α∞not␈α
crippled␈α∞by␈α
regulatory␈α∞constraints␈α
should␈α∞be␈α
taken,␈α∞and␈α
whether␈α∞the␈α
conservation

␈↓ α∧␈↓measures␈α
should␈α
be␈α
regarded␈αas␈α
temporary␈α
or␈α
permanent.␈α
 One␈αmight␈α
suppose␈α
that␈α
the␈αoutcome␈α
of

␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α∂ideological␈α⊂issue␈α∂should␈α⊂be␈α∂the␈α⊂resultant␈α∂of␈α⊂the␈α∂choices␈α⊂based␈α∂on␈α⊂individual␈α∂values,␈α⊂but␈α∂it

␈↓ α∧␈↓hasn't␈α
worked␈α
out␈α
that␈αway.␈α
 Unfortunately,␈α
many␈α
people␈αhave␈α
strong␈α
convictions␈α
about␈αhow␈α
other

␈↓ α∧␈↓people should live.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTWhether␈αthe␈αreductions␈αin␈αconsumption␈αcaused␈αby␈αan␈αoil␈αcutoff␈αare␈αregarded␈αas␈αpermanent

␈↓ α∧␈↓or␈αtemporary␈αaffects␈αthe␈αavailable␈αchoices␈αin␈αdealing␈αwith␈αthe␈αshortages.␈α To␈αthe␈αextent␈αthat␈αthey

␈↓ α∧␈↓are␈α⊃regarded␈α⊃as␈α⊃permanent,␈α⊃long␈α⊃term␈α⊃measures␈α⊃like␈α⊃reversing␈α⊃the␈α⊃moves␈α⊃to␈α⊃the␈α⊃suburbs␈α⊂are

␈↓ α∧␈↓appropriate.␈α⊃ Also␈α⊃it␈α⊃becomes␈α⊃important␈α∩to␈α⊃avoid␈α⊃mechanisms␈α⊃other␈α⊃than␈α⊃price␈α∩for␈α⊃enforcing

␈↓ α∧␈↓frugality,␈α∂because␈α∂they␈α∂will␈α∂lead␈α∂to␈α∂permanent␈α∂distortions␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂economy.␈α∂ Moreover,␈α⊂issues␈α∂of

␈↓ α∧␈↓equity will be divisive, since people will believe that their long term interests are at stake.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ f14


␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTIf␈αthe␈αrestrictions␈αare␈αregarded␈αas␈αtemporary,␈αnon-economic␈αmeasures␈αsuch␈αas␈αrationing␈αwill

␈↓ α∧␈↓be better accepted and will last longer before distorting economic decisions.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTAn␈α∞oil␈α∞cutoff␈α∞will␈α∞require␈α∞an␈α∂industrial␈α∞mobilization␈α∞like␈α∞that␈α∞at␈α∞the␈α∞beginning␈α∂of␈α∞World

␈↓ α∧␈↓War␈αII.␈α However,␈αgetting␈αagreement␈αon␈αcrash␈αprograms␈αwon't␈αbe␈αso␈αeasy␈αas␈αit␈αwas␈αthen.␈α No-one

␈↓ α∧␈↓opposed␈α∞President␈α∞Roosevelt's␈α∞call␈α∞for␈α∞producing␈α∞50,000␈α∞airplanes␈α∞and␈α∞the␈α∞plans␈α∞for␈α∞a␈α∞synthetic

␈↓ α∧␈↓rubber␈α∃industry.␈α∃ The␈α∃atomic␈α∃bomb␈α∃project␈α⊗was␈α∃kept␈α∃secret␈α∃with␈α∃the␈α∃consent␈α∃of␈α⊗the␈α∃few

␈↓ α∧␈↓Congressmen␈α∀who␈α∀were␈α∀told␈α∪about␈α∀it.␈α∀ However,␈α∀it␈α∀is␈α∪likely␈α∀that␈α∀there␈α∀will␈α∀be␈α∪determined

␈↓ α∧␈↓opposition␈αto␈αwhat␈αhas␈αto␈αbe␈αdone␈αto␈αsurvive␈αan␈αoil␈αcutoff,␈αbecause␈αsuch␈αopposition␈α
follows␈αfrom

␈↓ α∧␈↓ideologies already strongly entrenched.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTPerhaps␈α⊂it␈α⊃will␈α⊂seem␈α⊃unnecessarily␈α⊂contentious␈α⊂and␈α⊃provocative␈α⊂to␈α⊃discuss␈α⊂ideology␈α⊃in␈α⊂a

␈↓ α∧␈↓paper␈αconcerned␈αwith␈αa␈αnational␈αcrisis.␈α Rather␈αthan␈αstir␈αup␈αcontention,␈αmaybe␈αit␈αwould␈αbe␈αbetter

␈↓ α∧␈↓to␈αstick␈αto␈αa␈αdiscussion␈αof␈αwhat␈αshould␈αbe␈αdone␈αand␈αomit␈αremarks␈αthat␈αmay␈αbe␈αoffensive␈αto␈α
people

␈↓ α∧␈↓whose support may be obtainable.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α∞purpose␈α∂of␈α∞this␈α∂discussion␈α∞of␈α∞ideology␈α∂is␈α∞not␈α∂to␈α∞support␈α∞the␈α∂measures␈α∞I␈α∂advocate␈α∞by

␈↓ α∧␈↓attacking␈α
the␈α
motives␈α
of␈αpotential␈α
opponents.␈α
 Ideology␈α
is␈α
a␈αsocial␈α
phenomenon␈α
that␈α
can␈αbe␈α
studied

␈↓ α∧␈↓scientifically␈αlike␈αany␈αother,␈αand␈αit␈αis␈αrelevant␈αto␈αdo␈αit␈αhere,␈αbecause␈αideology␈αis␈αthe␈αmain␈αobstacle

␈↓ α∧␈↓to␈α⊃solving␈α⊃our␈α⊃present␈α⊃energy␈α∩problems␈α⊃and␈α⊃is␈α⊃likely␈α⊃to␈α∩be␈α⊃the␈α⊃main␈α⊃obstacle␈α⊃to␈α∩solving␈α⊃the

␈↓ α∧␈↓problems posed by an oil cutoff.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTTo␈α∀a␈α∪substantial␈α∀body␈α∪of␈α∀opinion,␈α∀the␈α∪impossibility␈α∀and␈α∪indeed␈α∀the␈α∀undesirability␈α∪of

␈↓ α∧␈↓American␈αenergy␈αindependence,␈αthe␈αpejorative␈αword␈αfor␈αwhich␈αis␈α"autarchy",␈αis␈αan␈αarticle␈αof␈α
faith.

␈↓ α∧␈↓An␈αearly␈αbut␈αtypical␈αexpression␈αof␈αthis␈αpoint␈αof␈αview␈αis␈αRussell␈αTrain's␈α␈↓↓"We␈αcan␈αand␈αshould␈αseize

␈↓ α∧␈↓↓upon␈α
the␈α
energy␈αcrisis␈α
as␈α
a␈α
good␈αexcuse␈α
and␈α
great␈α
opportunity␈αfor␈α
making␈α
some␈α
very␈αfundamental

␈↓ α∧␈↓↓changes that we should be making anyhow for other reasons."␈↓, ␈↓↓Science␈↓ 184 p. 1050, 7 June 1974.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTSome␈α
scientists␈αand␈α
engineers␈α
try␈αto␈α
take␈αvalues␈α
and␈α
ideology␈αinto␈α
account␈α
in␈αtechnological
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ f15


␈↓ α∧␈↓planning␈αbut␈αdo␈αit␈αin␈αa␈αway␈αthat␈αseems␈αto␈αme␈αmistaken.␈α They␈αtreat␈αprotests␈αagainst␈αtechnology␈αas

␈↓ α∧␈↓a␈α
side-effect␈αdetermined␈α
by␈αthe␈α
technology␈αitself␈α
-␈αjust␈α
as␈αS0␈↓β2␈↓␈α
is␈αa␈α
side-effect␈αof␈α
burning␈α
coal␈αin

␈↓ α∧␈↓certain ways.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTI␈α∞think␈α∞it␈α∂is␈α∞also␈α∞a␈α∞mistake␈α∂to␈α∞regard␈α∞the␈α∞anti-technology␈α∂movement␈α∞as␈α∞an␈α∂interest␈α∞group

␈↓ α∧␈↓whose␈αmembers␈αpersonally␈αbenefit␈αfrom␈αholding␈α
back␈αtechnology.␈α Since␈αthe␈αmovement␈αis␈αquick␈α
to

␈↓ α∧␈↓accuse␈αothers␈αof␈αacting␈αsolely␈αin␈αtheir␈αown␈αself␈αinterest,␈αit␈αis␈αpleasant␈αto␈αturn␈αthe␈αtables␈αsometimes

␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈α
accuse␈α
Sierra␈α
Club␈α
members␈α
of␈α
trying␈α
to␈αhold␈α
down␈α
the␈α
masses,␈α
but␈α
this␈α
isn't␈α
really␈αtheir␈α
main

␈↓ α∧␈↓motivation.  They have a genuine, though mainly mistaken, concept of the public interest.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTScientific␈α↔study␈α↔of␈α↔protests␈α↔against␈α⊗technology␈α↔is␈α↔certainly␈α↔necessary,␈α↔but␈α↔the␈α⊗above

␈↓ α∧␈↓approaches␈α
seem␈α
to␈α
miss␈α
the␈α
fact␈α
that␈α
ideological␈α
movements␈α
are␈α
dynamic␈α
entities␈α∞with␈α
histories.

␈↓ α∧␈↓We␈α∪can␈α∪use␈α∪the␈α∪engineering␈α∪analogy␈α∀of␈α∪hysteresis;␈α∪protest␈α∪isn't␈α∪merely␈α∪determined␈α∀by␈α∪what

␈↓ α∧␈↓technology is attempted but also by the history of the protest movement.  Relevant factors include

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT1. The alliance of anti-technology with the radical left formed during the Vietnam war

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT2.␈α⊂The␈α∂role␈α⊂of␈α∂the␈α⊂movement␈α∂as␈α⊂a␈α⊂vehicle␈α∂for␈α⊂political␈α∂advancement␈α⊂and␈α∂as␈α⊂a␈α⊂claim␈α∂on

␈↓ α∧␈↓political power,

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT3. Its institutionalization in the academic, media and government worlds

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT4.␈α∀Its␈α∀ways␈α∃of␈α∀recruiting␈α∀new␈α∀adherents␈α∃through␈α∀the␈α∀prevalence␈α∃of␈α∀anti-technological

␈↓ α∧␈↓attitudes among school teachers.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT5.␈αConnection␈αwith␈αtechnological␈αromanticism␈α
of␈αsolar␈αand␈α"appropriate"␈αtechnology␈αand␈α
the

␈↓ α∧␈↓Brownian space movement.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT6.␈α∪Social␈α∩romanticism␈α∪concerning␈α∪small␈α∩communities␈α∪and␈α∩other␈α∪temptations␈α∪to␈α∩redesign

␈↓ α∧␈↓society.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT7.␈α∂Obsequiousness␈α∂in␈α∞the␈α∂academic␈α∂and␈α∞industrial␈α∂communities␈α∂to␈α∞the␈α∂intellectual␈α∂fads␈α∞of

␈↓ α∧␈↓Government officials.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTOf course, this isn't a complete list of comparable items.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ f16


␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTViewing␈α
anti-technology␈α
as␈α
a␈α
movement␈α
rather␈α∞than␈α
simply␈α
as␈α
a␈α
reaction␈α
of␈α
the␈α∞public␈α
to

␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈αeffects␈αof␈αtechnology␈αgives␈αdifferent␈αexpectations␈αabout␈αthe␈αeffect␈αof␈αa␈αconcession␈αto␈αits␈αviews.

␈↓ α∧␈↓On␈α⊃the␈α∩simple␈α⊃reaction␈α∩model,␈α⊃we␈α∩should␈α⊃expect␈α∩that␈α⊃a␈α∩concession␈α⊃will␈α∩cause␈α⊃a␈α∩lessening␈α⊃of

␈↓ α∧␈↓protests.␈α On␈αthe␈αmovement␈α
model,␈αthe␈αsituation␈αis␈α
much␈αmore␈αcomplicated.␈α Some␈αleaders,␈α
fearing

␈↓ α∧␈↓a␈αdecline␈αin␈αtheir␈αorganization,␈αmay␈αintensify␈αthe␈αlevel␈αof␈αprotest,␈αwhile␈αothers␈αare␈αin␈αa␈αposition␈αto

␈↓ α∧␈↓compromise.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTAnother␈αeffect␈α
is␈αthat␈α
many␈αpublic␈α
figures␈αcannot␈α
react␈αto␈α
proposals␈αas␈α
individuals␈αbut␈α
must

␈↓ α∧␈↓react␈α
as␈αrepresentatives␈α
of␈αgroups␈α
with␈αpositions␈α
and␈αalliances␈α
with␈αother␈α
groups.␈α Since␈α
frequently

␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α∞most␈α
extreme␈α∞positions␈α∞attract␈α
the␈α∞best␈α
activists,␈α∞the␈α∞"moderates"␈α
usually␈α∞won't␈α∞disagree␈α
with

␈↓ α∧␈↓them.



␈↓ α∧␈↓RATIONING AND OTHER FORMS OF ALLOCATION

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTAllocations␈αbased␈αon␈αa␈αpercentage␈αof␈αpre-existing␈αuse␈αand␈αpreserving␈αpre-existing␈αchannels

␈↓ α∧␈↓of␈α∞supply␈α
can␈α∞work␈α
for␈α∞a␈α
short␈α∞time.␈α
 Their␈α∞virtue␈α
may␈α∞be␈α
that␈α∞they␈α
can␈α∞postpone␈α
the␈α∞burst␈α
of

␈↓ α∧␈↓inflation,␈α
hoarding␈α
and␈α
unstable␈α∞prices␈α
that␈α
an␈α
immediate␈α∞scarcity␈α
handled␈α
only␈α
by␈α∞pricing␈α
may

␈↓ α∧␈↓bring.␈α There␈αwill␈α
inevitably␈αbe␈αanomalies␈α
because␈αof␈αrecent␈α
changes␈αin␈αsituation.␈α
 The␈αsuffering

␈↓ α∧␈↓they cause can be borne, or it can be alleviated by ad hoc decisions of the allocation authorities.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α⊂following␈α⊂longer␈α⊂term␈α⊃problems␈α⊂make␈α⊂it␈α⊂necessary␈α⊃to␈α⊂replace␈α⊂allocations␈α⊂by␈α⊃a␈α⊂price

␈↓ α∧␈↓mechanism after a relatively small number of months:

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT1.␈αAn␈αincreasing␈αnumber␈αof␈αsupplyees␈αundergo␈αchanges␈αin␈αtheir␈αsituations.␈α Some␈αwill␈αneed

␈↓ α∧␈↓more␈αand␈αwill␈α
appeal.␈α Judging␈αthese␈α
appeals␈αwill␈αtake␈α
more␈αand␈αmore␈α
expertise␈αas␈αthey␈α
come␈αto

␈↓ α∧␈↓involve␈α⊂long␈α⊂term␈α⊃changes␈α⊂in␈α⊂the␈α⊃activities␈α⊂of␈α⊂individuals␈α⊃and␈α⊂businesses.␈α⊂ An␈α⊃ideal␈α⊂allocator

␈↓ α∧␈↓might␈α⊃have␈α⊃to␈α⊃know␈α⊃as␈α⊃much␈α⊃about␈α⊃the␈α⊂business␈α⊃to␈α⊃which␈α⊃he␈α⊃is␈α⊃allocating␈α⊃as␈α⊃its␈α⊃owners␈α⊂in

␈↓ α∧␈↓addition␈αto␈αknowing␈αthe␈αsupply␈αsituation.␈α Such␈αexpertise␈αwill␈αbe␈αin␈αshort␈αsupply␈αand␈αbetter␈αspent
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ f17


␈↓ α∧␈↓in␈αproduction␈α
than␈αin␈α
allocation.␈α Those␈α
whose␈αactivities␈α
change␈αto␈α
requiring␈αless␈α
for␈αa␈αgiven␈α
level

␈↓ α∧␈↓of␈α↔sacrifice␈α_will␈α↔be␈α↔inclined␈α_to␈α↔keep␈α↔quiet,␈α_and␈α↔ferreting␈α↔them␈α_out␈α↔will␈α_again␈α↔consume

␈↓ α∧␈↓administrative␈αresources␈αand␈αlead␈αto␈αall␈αkinds␈αof␈αconflicts.␈α Permitting␈αthe␈αsale␈αof␈αallocations␈αafter

␈↓ α∧␈↓a␈α
while␈αwill␈α
relieve␈α
the␈αsituation,␈α
but␈α
if␈αcontinued,␈α
economic␈α
positions␈αwill␈α
develop␈α
based␈αmainly

␈↓ α∧␈↓on the possession of allocations.  These economic positions will distort the economy.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTA␈αpriority␈αsystem␈αin␈αwhich␈αprices␈αare␈αdetermined␈αby␈αa␈αmarket␈αcovering␈αmore␈αthan␈αhalf␈αthe

␈↓ α∧␈↓supplies␈α∂but␈α∂where␈α∂essential␈α∞users␈α∂get␈α∂priorities␈α∂to␈α∞buy␈α∂at␈α∂that␈α∂price␈α∞will␈α∂work␈α∂for␈α∂a␈α∂long␈α∞time

␈↓ α∧␈↓provided the number of supplyees with priorities is kept small enough.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT2.␈α⊂Temporary␈α⊃individual␈α⊂rationing␈α⊃of␈α⊂gasoline␈α⊂and␈α⊃heating␈α⊂oil␈α⊃may␈α⊂be␈α⊃required.␈α⊂ Thus

␈↓ α∧␈↓during␈αWorld␈αWar␈α
II␈αanyone␈αcould␈αget␈α
an␈αA-sticker␈αpermitting␈αthe␈α
purchase␈αof␈αxxx␈α
gallons␈αper

␈↓ α∧␈↓month.␈α
 Only␈αA␈α
coupons␈α
could␈αbe␈α
used␈αto␈α
buy␈α
gas␈αthat␈α
was␈α
to␈αbe␈α
put␈αinto␈α
a␈α
car␈αwith␈α
an␈αA␈α
sticker.

␈↓ α∧␈↓Commuters␈αto␈αessential␈αjobs␈αcould␈αget␈αstickers␈αand␈αcoupons␈αworth␈αmore.␈α A␈αrecent␈αAdministration

␈↓ α∧␈↓plan calls for an allowance of 42 gallons per month.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThere␈α
is␈α
also␈α
a␈αdanger␈α
is␈α
that␈α
in␈αan␈α
attempt␈α
to␈α
achieve␈αconsensus,␈α
plans␈α
will␈α
be␈αadopted␈α
that

␈↓ α∧␈↓are␈α⊂too␈α∂elaborate␈α⊂to␈α⊂be␈α∂administered,␈α⊂cause␈α∂long␈α⊂procedural␈α⊂delays,␈α∂contain␈α⊂built-in␈α⊂vetoes␈α∂for

␈↓ α∧␈↓various␈α⊃groups,␈α⊃and␈α∩give␈α⊃people␈α⊃wrong␈α∩incentives.␈α⊃ For␈α⊃example,␈α∩there␈α⊃may␈α⊃be␈α∩incentives␈α⊃to

␈↓ α∧␈↓consume␈α
lest␈α
a␈α
quota␈α
be␈α
lost␈α
and␈α
to␈αheat␈α
unused␈α
space␈α
or␈α
drive␈α
unneeded␈α
vehicles.␈α
 An␈αindustry␈α
of

␈↓ α∧␈↓fixers may develop.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTWhile␈α
I␈α
have␈αaccepted␈α
rationing␈α
as␈αa␈α
way␈α
of␈αavoiding␈α
oscillations␈α
in␈αsupply␈α
and␈α
price␈αat␈α
the

␈↓ α∧␈↓onset␈α⊂of␈α⊂a␈α⊂crisis,␈α⊃I␈α⊂must␈α⊂confess␈α⊂being␈α⊂impressed␈α⊃by␈α⊂Alvin␈α⊂Alm's␈α⊂arguments␈α⊂that␈α⊃rationing␈α⊂is

␈↓ α∧␈↓unlikely to work even in the short run.



␈↓ α∧␈↓POLITICAL ACTIONS IN SUPPORT OF MOBILIZATION

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α
oil␈α∞cutoff␈α
will␈α∞cause␈α
many␈α
politicians␈α∞and␈α
environmentalists␈α∞to␈α
change␈α∞their␈α
positions
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ f18


␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈α↔support␈α_energy␈α↔production␈α_measures␈α↔and␈α_support␈α↔assurances␈α_to␈α↔the␈α_population␈α↔that

␈↓ α∧␈↓production␈αwill␈αsolve␈αthe␈α
problem.␈α However,␈αthere␈αwill␈αremain␈α
"men␈αof␈αprinciple"␈αwho␈α
will␈αhold

␈↓ α∧␈↓out␈α⊂against␈α∂any␈α⊂relaxation␈α∂of␈α⊂procedural␈α∂and␈α⊂substantive␈α∂constraints.␈α⊂ Those␈α∂environmentalists

␈↓ α∧␈↓whose␈α∩positions␈α∩change␈α⊃will␈α∩be␈α∩reluctant␈α⊃to␈α∩disagree␈α∩publicly␈α⊃with␈α∩their␈α∩extremist␈α⊃colleagues,

␈↓ α∧␈↓because␈αthese␈α
will␈αoften␈α
have␈αbeen␈α
the␈αgreatest␈α
contributors␈αto␈α
the␈αcause.␈α
 Therefore,␈αthe␈α
President

␈↓ α∧␈↓will have to attack the extremists publicly, not just in one speech, but repeatedly.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTOne␈αof␈αthe␈αproblems␈αis␈αthat␈αtoday,␈αunlike␈αin␈αDecember␈α1941,␈αthere␈αis␈αsubstantial␈αintellectual

␈↓ α∧␈↓lobby␈αwhose␈αslogan␈αis␈α␈↓↓"It␈αcan't␈αbe␈αdone"␈↓.␈α Its␈αintellectual␈αsource␈αis␈αin␈αthe␈αenvironmental␈αmovement

␈↓ α∧␈↓which believes it shouldn't be done.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTPerhaps␈α
the␈α
greatest␈α
contribution␈α
this␈α
conference␈αcan␈α
make␈α
to␈α
our␈α
preparedness␈α
for␈α
an␈αoil

␈↓ α∧␈↓cutoff␈αis␈αa␈αclear␈αstatement␈αthat␈αit␈αcan␈αbe␈αdone.␈α With␈αan␈αeffort␈αon␈αthe␈αscale␈αof␈αthe␈αWorld␈αWar␈αII

␈↓ α∧␈↓crash␈α∞programs,␈α∞we␈α∂can␈α∞restore␈α∞our␈α∞standard␈α∂of␈α∞living␈α∞with␈α∞our␈α∂own␈α∞unaided␈α∞efforts␈α∂and␈α∞even

␈↓ α∧␈↓keep our allies afloat (given their best efforts too).

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTOf␈αcourse,␈αthe␈αprobability␈αof␈αa␈αcutoff␈αcan␈αbe␈αgreatly␈αreduced␈αby␈αa␈αcrash␈αprogram␈αof␈αenergy

␈↓ α∧␈↓production␈αstarting␈αnow.␈α The␈αfigures␈αmentioned␈αat␈αthis␈αconference␈αof␈α$270␈αbillion␈αto␈α$450␈αbillion

␈↓ α∧␈↓to␈α∂replace␈α∂9␈α∞million␈α∂barrels␈α∂per␈α∞day␈α∂of␈α∂oil␈α∂imports␈α∞by␈α∂production␈α∂from␈α∞shale␈α∂are␈α∂less␈α∂than␈α∞the

␈↓ α∧␈↓predicted␈α⊃cost␈α⊃to␈α⊂our␈α⊃economy␈α⊃of␈α⊂a␈α⊃single␈α⊃year␈α⊂of␈α⊃cutoff.␈α⊃ Proposing␈α⊂to␈α⊃achieve␈α⊃this␈α⊃level␈α⊂of

␈↓ α∧␈↓production␈αin␈α30␈αyears␈αrather␈αthan␈αin␈αfive␈αto␈αten␈αseems␈αto␈αme␈αto␈αbe␈αa␈αconsequence␈αof␈αintimidation

␈↓ α∧␈↓by␈αthe␈αvehemence␈αof␈αthe␈αanti-energy␈αactivists.␈α Anyone␈αwho␈αseriously␈αregards␈αthe␈αenergy␈αcrisis␈αas

␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α⊂moral␈α∂equivalent␈α⊂of␈α⊂war␈α∂should␈α⊂support␈α⊂solving␈α∂it␈α⊂at␈α⊂a␈α∂cost␈α⊂of␈α⊂two␈α∂to␈α⊂five␈α⊂years'␈α∂defense

␈↓ α∧␈↓budget.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTAccording␈αto␈α
the␈αpress,␈αthere␈α
is␈αno␈αofficial␈α
contingency␈αplan␈αfor␈α
dealing␈αwith␈αan␈α
oil␈αcutoff.

␈↓ α∧␈↓Time␈αand␈αresources␈αcould␈αbe␈αsaved␈αin␈αan␈αemergency␈αby␈αhaving␈αa␈αgood␈αplan.␈α However,␈αtime␈αand

␈↓ α∧␈↓resources␈αcan␈α
be␈αwasted␈α
in␈αan␈α
emergency␈αby␈α
a␈αcommitment␈α
to␈αa␈α
bad␈αplan.␈α
 Perhaps␈αmy␈α
worry␈αis
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ f19


␈↓ α∧␈↓unrealistic,␈α∂but␈α∂it␈α∂may␈α∂be␈α∂that␈α∂a␈α∂plan␈α∂prepared␈α∂now␈α∂would␈α∂be␈α∂worse␈α∂than␈α∂no␈α∂plan,␈α⊂because␈α∂it

␈↓ α∧␈↓would be a compromise with the views of people who oppose increased energy production now.

␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTMore␈α
research␈αwould␈α
permit␈α
a␈αmore␈α
quantitative␈α
discussion␈αof␈α
the␈α
problems␈αof␈α
an␈αoil␈α
cutoff.

␈↓ α∧␈↓However,␈α
I␈αsuspect␈α
that␈αshould␈α
anyone␈α
come␈αacross␈α
this␈αpaper␈α
some␈α
years␈αafter␈α
a␈αcutoff,␈α
he␈αwill␈α
be

␈↓ α∧␈↓less␈α
annoyed␈α
at␈αthe␈α
lack␈α
of␈α
numbers␈αthan␈α
at␈α
the␈α
lack␈αof␈α
imagination␈α
in␈α
determining␈αthe␈α
qualitative

␈↓ α∧␈↓consequences of the cutoff and the responses to it.


␈↓ α∧␈↓John McCarthy
␈↓ α∧␈↓Computer Science Department
␈↓ α∧␈↓Stanford University
␈↓ α∧␈↓Stanford, CA 94305